River Stage Prediction Using Hydrodynamic Modeling

EasyChair Preprint no. 11416

Abstract

Increasingly erratic climatic conditions cause sudden water surges from the Ukai dam in the river Tapi, flooding Surat city. There were disastrous floods in 1883, 1884, 1942, 1944, 1945, 1949, 1959, 1968, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013. The river's carrying capacity is estimated to be around 4.5 million cubic meters. Due to silting and encroachment caused by urbanization, the effective waterway of the river Tapi is shrinking in width and depth, reducing the river's carrying capacity. The Hydrologic Engineering Centres River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) software is used in this study to assess the carrying capacity of the Lower Tapi River reach, which is 12.25 km long, and to conduct an unsteady flow analysis for the tidal reach in order to understand the effects of high and low tides. As a study reach, the Tapi River reach was taken from Weir cum Causeway to Magdalla bridge. There are 49 cross-sections in the study's reach. The variations of water surface level due to upstream flow and high tidal backflow conditions in the channel reach are considered in the study. For the years 2010, 2011, and 2012 daily discharge data, unsteady flow analysis was performed using HEC-RAS, taking into account the tidal surges and backflow. To improvise the effect of minimum and maximum variations of tidal effect, three years of daily discharge data were considered and studied. The effect of changes in tidal level variations due to various peak discharges has been studied. The effects of the tidal effect on flooding are depicted in this study. To prevent flooding at various critical cross-sections levees are proposed to be constructed to store and mitigate the high inflow. This study may be used as a basis for disaster management, flood management, early warning systems, and infrastructure development decisions.

Keyphrases: Floods, HEC-RAS, Rainfall, Surat, Tapi river

@Booklet{EasyChair:11416,
  author = {Darshan Mehta and Sanjaykumar M Yadav and Rahul S. Yadav and Ayushi Panchal},
  title = {River Stage Prediction Using Hydrodynamic Modeling},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 11416},

  year = {EasyChair, 2023}}